Perth and Western Australia cycling participation: 1985/86 to 2015
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Perth bicycle trips A comparison of pre-helmet law 1985/86 and 2015 cycling surveys suggests that participation in Perth has declined 5.6% despite population growth of 87.9%. These estimate are imprecise but are based on available government survey and population data. The pre-bicycle helmet law cycling numbers are based on Day to Day Travel in Australia 1985-86 (CR69), published by the Federal Office of Road Safety in 1988, which analysed different travel modes among Australians above the age of nine:
Day to Day Travel in Australia 1985-86 (p131)
Current cycling participation in Perth can be sourced to the 2015 National Cycling Participation Survey: Western Australia (NCP) which provides the following age breakdown of people who had cycled in the previous week:
National Cycling Participation Survey: Western Australia (p5)
0-9yo - 57% 10-17yo - 37% 18-29yo - 17% 30-49yo - 14% 50yo+ - 6% Perth's 2014 population can be sourced to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The ABS provides an age breakdown of Greater Perth population (xls 111kb) in June 2014: 10-19yo - 247,907 20-29yo - 327,387 30-49yo - 580,294 50yo+ - 604,375 The NCP 2015 demographic percentages above can be used to calculate how many Perth people cycled in the previous week: 10-19yo - 247,907 x 37% = 91,726 20-29yo - 327,387 x 17% = 55,656 30-49yo - 580,294 x 14% = 81,241 50yo+ - 604,375 x 6% = 36,263 Total = 264,886 The NCP 2015 survey estimated that West Australians who had cycled in the previous week did so for an average 3.3 days:
National Cycling Participation Survey: Western Australia (p12)
124,875 bike trips per day is down -5.6% on the 132,300 trips per day in 1985/86. Perth's all age population in 1986 was 1,075,959 and in 2014 it was 2,021,203, an increase of 87.9%. Main Roads WA figures show that between September 1983 and 1991, Perth enjoyed a 10% annual growth in personal bike trips. Below is a chart prepared by the West Australian Government road department Main Roads WA showing Perth's estimated weekday cycling growth on the Swan River bridges during the 1980s, and the decline that began after bicycle helmet law enactment in 1991.
Main Roads WA internal document
Main Roads WA: Bicycle Volumes - Southern Entries to Perth CBD
Also, the 3.3 times per week is a Western Australia rather than Perth estimate and Austroads warns that the estimate should be treated with a high level of caution. The -5.6% cycling reduction is imprecise because of these differences but is adequate evidence that Perth daily cycling participation had declined substantially by 2015 compared to population growth since 1986.
A comparison of pre-helmet law 1985/86 and 2015 cycling surveys suggests that participation across all of Western Australia has declined 2.5% despite population growth of 76.4%. These estimates are more accurate than the Perth analysis above as the Australian Bureau of Statistics provides single year population data for WA which allows exact demographic matching. The pre-bicycle helmet law cycling numbers are based on Day to Day Travel in Australia 1985-86 (CR69), published by the Federal Office of Road Safety in 1988, which analysed different travel modes among Australians above the age of nine:
Day to Day Travel in Australia 1985-86 (p123)
Current cycling participation in WA can be sourced to the 2015 National Cycling Participation Survey: Western Australia (NCP) survey which provides the following age breakdown of people who had cycled in the previous week:
National Cycling Participation Survey: Western Australia (p5)
0-9yo - 62% 10-17yo - 43% 18-29yo - 19% 30-49yo - 16% 50yo+ - 6% WA's 2014 population can be sourced to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (xls 651kb): 9yo - 31,585 10-17yo - 248,480 18-29yo - 461,604 30-49yo - 735,044 50yo+ - 776,542 The NCP 2015 demographic percentages above can be used to calculate how many WA people cycled in the previous week: 9yo - 31,585 x 62% = 19,583 10-17yo - 248,480 x 43% = 106,846 18-29yo - 461,604 x 19% = 87,705 30-49yo - 735,044 x 16% = 117,607 50yo+ - 776,542 x 6% = 46,593 Total = 378,334 The NCP 2015 survey estimated that West Australians who had cycled in the previous week did so for an average 3.3 days:
National Cycling Participation Survey: Western Australia (p12)
178,357 bike trips per day is down -2.5% on the 182,900 trips per day in 1985/86. WA's all age population in 1986 was 1,459,019 and in 2014 it was 2,573,389, an increase of 76.4%. WA's 9+ population in 1986 was 1,252,384 and in 2014 it was 2,253,255, an increase of 79.9%. The 1985/86 and 2015 demographic comparisons are not exact as Austroads warns that the 3.3 times per week average should be treated with a high level of caution. An alternative source of cycling participation data recorded prior to WA's 1992 bicycle helmet law enforcement can be found in Bicycle Usage and Safety Western Australia, a telephone survey of 3,718 WA households conducted during the two weeks beginning 10 October, 1989, published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Bicycle Usage and Safety Western Australia, ABS, October 1989 (p10, p11)
The ABS survey above of cycling frequency suggests 283,900 West Australians aged 10+ cycled at least once per week in October 1989, compared to the 182,900 trips per day by West Australians aged 9+ in 1985/86 and the 178,357 trips per day in WA by cyclists aged 9+ in 2015. The NCP 2015 survey suggests 48,264 children aged 5-9 cycled daily (2014 population 165,127 x 62% = 102,379 x 3.3 / 7 = 48,264) which compares to 70,557 WA cyclists aged 5-9 who cycled daily in 1989 (as calculated from the ABS frequency of cycling data above excluding those who cycled at least or less than once every three months)- a -31.6% reduction despite a 34.3% increase in WA's 5-9yo age bracket from 1989 to 2014 (122,917 > 165,127). The two independent 1985/86 and 1989 surveys conducted prior to WA bicycle helmet law enforcement both confirm significant per capita decreases in cycling participation compared to 2015 estimates by the National Cycling Participation survey.
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